Assessing Groundwater Resources Nitrate Contamination Using Time Series Analyses SARIMA Modeling

To assess the groundwater potential, analyses of trend decomposition, time series and frequency between various types of data in hydrologic setting and between different basins is required for local and regional studies. In this paper, ground water level fluctuations and Nitrate concentrations of kabudarahang aquifer were investigated with application of time series models. Simulated values were calibrated by the Box-Jenkins, Holt Winters and extrapolation methods. The annual chemograph of Nitrate concentrations was developed, too. Residual error analysis of groundwater levels and Nitrate concentrations performed with R2=98% and finally a simulated model for ground water conditions developed. Model results showed that the groundwater level in the aquifer will endure a 5 meter decline in three upcoming years and indicated that the Nitrate concentration would reach 48.08 mg/l.